Nosov Vasilii, a PhD Candidate in Public Policy at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy casts a scholarly eye over what’s been kind-of obvious for a while.
‘Western’ sanctions (led by the United States), which have grown in popularity in recent years, have caused many smaller actors to reconsider their relationship with China. In most cases this has been to China’s advantage.
Because the issue of alignment is a somewhat woolly concept the researcher uses the twin indicators of United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting trends and the growth of BRICS membership (or the desire to join) as proxies for the shift.
BRICS invited six nations in 2023 to join (Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and a further 10 in 2024 (Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Nigeria). There also a large group still queuing for entry.
This trend is especially noteworthy as India and Brazil were openly opposed to new members for some time as; a) this would reduce their heft, and b) new members are joining for the most part to be friends with the big dog, China. Adding the known joiners to the rumored hopefuls produces a list of 40 either in or hoping to be in the bloc.
By combining the BRICS data with the UNGA patterns a clear picture emerges. Sanctioned nations affinity for closer ties with China has increased. The only mitigating factor observed is where US Aid is going in to a country which can alter the outcome (but as a lot of that has been curtailed recently this may not be a mitigation in future).
What’s interesting to me is how this has happened without China lifting a finger. This Making China Great Again effect is one entirely of the West’s creation.
Not an outcome blowhard politicians were hoping for nor are going to be in any hurry to share with supporters; but a fact in plain sight nonetheless. In soccer I believe this result is referred to as an own-goal?
You can read the work in full yourself via this link How Western Sanctions Push Countries Toward China.
Happy Sunday.