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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Emotional Attachment to AI Chatbots: Evidence from Germany, China, South Africa, and the United States

In a study that’s the subject of today’s highlighted paper Genia Kostka and Hui Zhou, working at the Freie Universität Berlin, present the first cross cultural study of why and how people are using AI for counseling, comfort and emotional support. The table below presents some interesting cultural bias. Chinese users seem to especially enjoy […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Modeling Institutional Investors in China

Yinghua Fan, Guanhao Feng and Dashan Huang believe they’ve produced a first in terms of modelling the complete spectrum of investors at work in China’s A-share markets (due to data constraints the study was of just Shanghai from 2007~2023, Shenzhen had to be left out). Many believe stock markets in China are driven by no-nothing […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Is China’s Patent Boom A Bust?

I read through most of the paper highlighted today in a bit of harrumph. What I thought Andrew W. Torrance (et al.), from the University of Kansas School of Law writing in an article for the Houston Law Review, was trying to do was set up a ‘straw man’ argument to tear it down. In […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – The Labor Market Consequences of Mass College Expansion: Evidence from China

Like so much that China has done, and is doing, nothing like it in the history of humanity has been seen before. In the case of the paper highlighted today the subject is the extraordinary expansion of higher education that’s taken place starting from 1999. Zhaoxuan Wang from the University of British Columbia has taken […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Brand Premium: Evidence from Asia

[I’m not sure highlighting academic work that supports any of my key investing criteria is a smart idea. Especially when it’s a favorable anomaly I’ve benefited from for years. In this case it’s the importance of brand (or market leadership as I prefer to express it). Oh well, sharing is caring, right?] Yigit Atilgan (et […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – The Constitution of Innovation: A New European Renaissance

When and why has Europe gone so wrong; and what, if anything, can be done about it? These are the issues the trio responsible for today’s paper, from the London School of Economics, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the European University Institute, take a closer look at. When did Europe go wrong? Seems to […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – AI and Operational Losses: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies

The paper highlighted today provides an analysis of 36 of the largest Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) in the U.S. and finds a one standard deviation increase in AI investment produces a 24% increase in quarterly operational losses. Ouch! The more banks have incorporated AI into their operations the higher risk they’ve exposed themselves to and […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy: How Long Do ‘Hallucinations’ Last?

Writing in a Working Paper for the Institute for New Economic Thinking Servaas Storm from the Delft University of Technology explains how and why the U.S. is inflating an AI-bubble, and concludes this will end badly. The paper makes three main points: For most this (below) may be the most apposite section i.e. the one […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – F(r)iction in Machines: Accounting Hallucinations of Large Language Models

[An aside: I went to a presentation at the Hong Kong Society of Financial Analysts recently to hear about ‘Agentic AI’. The talk was given by a Microsoft representative who was, naturally, praising ‘Copilot’. The audience via their questions could barely suppress their frustration with both AI and their experience with the Copilot. To remind, […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Microfinance Can Raise Incomes: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in the People’s Republic of China

Writing in an Asian Development Bank Working Paper (#812) Shu Cai, a Professor at Jinan University (et al.) takes a look at a specific example of microfinance in the PRC. This study is important as in recent years the effectiveness of microfinance has been questioned. Studies elsewhere have shown either limited, insignificant or no effects […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Safety and City: the adoption of surveillance cameras increases the real estate price in China

[Me, I’m big on law and order. Not so much the punishment bit as it’s practiced in most of the world. That doesn’t seem to work well in terms of stamping out the problem and is very expensive. Prevention is my preferred route so I was very interested in the findings of the work highlighted […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition

[As a useful companion to the paper highlighted today I’d recommend the new(-ish) book ‘Apple in China’ by Patrick McGee. It’s the most useful ‘China Book’ I’ve read in a long while. The book sheds light on how Apple has used China to its advantage but in the process transferred know-how to an ecosystem that […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Emotions and Fund Flows: Evidence from Managers’ Live Streams 

Writing in an HKU Business School paper (HKU Jockey Club Enterprise Sustainability Global Research Institute Paper Series) Marcin T. Kacperczyk of Imperial College London (et al.) set out test whether or not extemporaneous live streaming interviews of fund managers make any difference in terms of assets subsequently flowing into their funds. There’s a large body […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – When LLMs Go Abroad: Foreign Bias in AI Financial Predictions

In a Harvard Business School Working Paper Sean Cao, Charles C. Y. Wang and Yi Xiang from the universities of Maryland, Harvard and The Hong Kong Polytechnic uncover a strange bias in AI-generated financial predictions. We know from prior research investors tend to favour and be more optimistic about companies in their home markets. We […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico

Francisco Arizala, Tomohide Mineyama, and Hugo Tuesta, researchers at the IMF writing in a Working Paper have taken a closer look at how Mexico’s import/export dynamic changed in the period 2017~2023. The chart they start the paper with is a corker. Did you know, I didn’t, that Mexico now sends more ‘stuff’ to the U.S. […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Academic Directors and Corporate Social Responsibility: Evidence from China

There are a few quality-of-character checks I perform when looking at a company. One of these is a close squint at the biographies of Directors, especially the Independent Non-Executive ones (the INEDs). Red flags include suspiciously young Directors (often family being groomed), suspiciously well paid non-Executive Directors (often family collecting stipends) and INEDs with more […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – An Assessment of China’s Innovative Capacity

In a blog post from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System researchers Sina T. Ates and Sharon Jeon look more closely at China’s innovative capacity. It’s a short piece but the conclusion is unequivocal: “The particular metrics highlighted in this note suggest that China has built tremendous innovative capacity that bodes well […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation

The work highlighted today is a ‘Working Paper’ from the IMF. The authors: Daniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari, Yifen Tao and Yutong Li have tried to fix a bead on just how Industrial Policy (IP, i.e. subsidies) in China ends up being a net disbenifit. The IMF have urged China to give up this kind of […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Risky Silicon: How Dependence on Chinese Semiconductors Endangers U.S. National Security

Dr. Samuel Johnson noted in 1775 that “Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel”. The justification then, for some of the harder to understand policies of the current U.S. administration should surprise none when they come flag-wrapped as necessary for the promotion of ‘National Security’. There’s a long historical precedent for this kind of […]

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Sunday Papers

The Sunday Paper – Offshore Wind Farms Can Enhance the Structural Composition and Functional Dynamics of Coastal Waters

Liwei Si (et al.) from the Dalian Ocean University wondered what the environmental impact of offshore wind farms might be? Nobody likes the onshore variety, much. They’re ugly, noisy and kill birds. Offshore facilities seem like a much better idea as they can be built bigger and a long way from people (and many birds). […]